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In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

$13,899 volume on Manifold
manifold
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
79.9%$0.80
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Selected BetIn 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
M
Trading via Manifold
Market Volume$13.9K
Yes
79.9%
No
20.1%
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